Discussion paper
DP19552 A Hundred Years of Business Cycles and the Phillips Curve
This study investigates the business cycle dynamics of the U.S. economy since 1900 through a multivariate framework that imposes minimal economic restrictions. A key finding is the presence of a significant negative correlation between inflation and economic slack, at business cycle frequencies. This relationship remains robust across over a century of data, with stable coefficients in subsample periods.
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