DP9112 Now-casting and the real-time data flow

• Lucrezia Reichlin Domenico Giannone Michele Modugno Marta Bańbura
2 Sep 2012

The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and recently also in economics In this paper we survey recent developments on economic now-casting with special focus on those models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time, which involves: monitoring many data, forming expectations about them and revising the assessment on the state of the economy whenever realizations diverge sizeably from those expectations.