The invited policy session of the 78th Economic Policy panel meeting will feature Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University presenting new evidence of China’s heavy reliance on real estate and infrastructure construction as a central part of its economic growth. The report reveals that the share of these two sectors in China’s GDP far exceeds the levels found in the United States and Europe; only Spain in the run-up to its financial crisis came close.

Professor Rogoff’s research also employs a newly constructed city-level database on the stock of housing in China to show that across city tiers, the country’s per capita housing stock rivals that of the UK and France, despite having much lower per capita income. As he will explain, the interplay between China’s real estate market and slowing trend growth – due to demographics and deglobalisation, among other factors – poses a very difficult policy challenge.

Following the presentation, there will be a panel discussion featuring Shang-Jin Wei of Columbia Business School & SIPA, and Kurt Mitman of CEMFI & Institute for International Economic Studies, moderated by Daniel Santabárbara, Head of the Advanced and Systemic Economies Unit in the International Department, Banco de España.