This report first examines whether the logic of the regime, and the Paris Agreement in particular, is effective. The Paris Agreement is having a positive impact: if nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented, projected global temperature rise would be around 1 degree C less than it would have been had the agreement not been adopted. Yet the pace of action is not enough to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement—the world is on track to overshoot 1.5 degrees C, and even staying within 2 degrees C of warming is far from certain. Clearly, incremental improvements in climate ambition and implementation are not enough. A transformational shift is essential.

The report then examines how the regime’s “norm-setting” function can be strengthened to make it fit for an evolving purpose, remain functionally relevant, and deliver on the goals of the Paris Agreement. More specifically, recommendations are made in the following areas:

• enhancing ambition and fairness by increasing peer pressure that encourages and inspires ambition in light of different national circumstances and fair shares
• accelerating implementation and strengthening accountability across sectors and within nations with improved systems and processes to understand and follow up on the progress made
• strengthening cooperative action on adaptation and loss & damage (L&D) in the context of urgent needs and overshoot pathways
• expanding coverage to prepare for the future demands that will require agreement on a range of issues that are currently not addressed by the regime well or at all
• streamlining and fine-tuning processes to enhance responsiveness to an evolving purpose.

Finally, this report reviews the regime’s catalytic role in the wider landscape of climate action. The wider landscape includes relevant international organizations and agreements, international cooperative initiatives (ICIs), multilateral development banks (MDBs), international financial institutions (IFIs), and voluntary commitments by non-Party stakeholders (NPS). There is considerable potential in leveraging the actors in this landscape to narrow remaining ambition and implementation gaps in relation to mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation, as well as fulfilling governance functions in ways that complement and reinforce the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.

At the same time, there remain core challenges related to transparency, accountability, and the thematic and geographical balance of the wider landscape. To ensure that this wider landscape effectively contributes to and strengthens the catalytic role of the climate regime, this report highlights key findings and makes the following broad recommendations:

• Parties should harness existing agenda items under the UN climate regime, or establish a targeted mechanism or process, to foster substantive exchanges with other international organizations and treaties, including IFIs, and to recognize, consider, and promote alignment of their goals and actions with the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
• Parties should enhance the role of, and engagement with, all types of ICIs, in the context of an upgraded Global Climate Action Portal, including by strengthening their transparency and accountability as well as their thematic and geographical balance.

Parties, the UNFCCC Secretariat, the High-Level Climate Champions/Marrakech Partnership, the UN Secretary-General, and/or the Conference of Parties (COP) Presidencies could advance and implement these recommendations variously, including through leveraging the GST process.

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It lays out the certainty of impact, feasibility, and barriers of each key signal, as well as existing initiatives working toward its implementation, relevant sustainable development goals, and options for outcomes of the GST at COP28. The report also underscores the importance of linking the GST outcomes to active progress in 2024 and updated nationally determined contributions in 2025.

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This paper provides background on just transition, as well as poses options and questions for the elements, modalities, and terms of reference for the work programme.

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Ultimately, whether COP28 is judged a success will largely be determined by how the world responds to the outcomes of the global stocktake. The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES), the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), and Transforma will set out a theory of change for moving from incremental progress in the UNFCCC to transformational levels of ambition and implementation. To add real value, COP28 and the GST need to send clear and specific signals as to what Parties and non-Party stakeholders could usefully do after COP28 in order to collectively achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, both as part of an immediate response as well as through more ambitious nationally determined contributions in 2025.

One example of such a signal could be agreement on a proposed global goal of tripling renewable power generation by 2030 and how it can be achieved in the context of a just energy transition.  The COP28 outcome must help drive a shift from incremental progress on energy transition toward transformational levels of ambition, implementation, and fairness. The second part of the mandate of the GST on enhancing international cooperation further presents an important hook that could be used to move from zero-sum confrontational and incremental increases in ambition and implementation towards needed transformation.

The normative potential of the UNFCCC process should be leveraged to ensure that all stakeholders—national governments, local authorities, civil society, the private sector, national level practitioners, multilateral organizations, and UN agencies, among others—align their efforts to deliver an effective response to COP28 and the GST.

Speakers:

• Kaveh Guilanpour, Vice President of International Strategies, C2ES (moderator)
• Juliana Arcieniegas, Director, Transforma
• Henri Waisman, Director of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Initiative, IDDRI
• Mandy Rambharos, Vice President of Global Cooperation, EDF
• Xolisa Ngwadla, Independent Consultant, South Africa
• Amit Garg, NIIF Chair in ESG, Professor of Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India (IIMA)

The post A Vision for the GST Outcome and Beyond: The Case for Energy Transition appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Ultimately, whether COP28 is judged a success will largely be determined by how the world responds to the outcomes of the global stocktake (GST). To add real value, COP28 and the GST need to send clear and specific signals as to what Parties and non-Party stakeholders could usefully do after COP28 in order to collectively achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, both as part of an immediate response as well as through more ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2025. One example of such a signal could be agreement on a proposed global goal of tripling renewable power generation by 2030 and how it can be achieved in the context of a just energy transition.

The second part of the mandate of the GST on enhancing international cooperation presents an important hook that could be used to move from zero-sum confrontational and incremental increases in ambition and implementation towards needed transformation. This could require creativity and innovation in international cooperation for which the GST should give a clear policy signal to trigger adequate processes among Parties and non-Party stakeholders going forward.

The COP28 outcome must help drive a shift from incremental progress on energy transition toward transformational levels of ambition, implementation, and fairness. The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES),the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), and Transforma will set out a theory of change for moving from incremental progress in the UNFCCC to transformational levels of ambition and implementation. They will be joined by regional or country experts who can speak to the normative potential of the UNFCCC process and how it should be leveraged to ensure that all stakeholders—national governments, local authorities, civil society, the private sector, national level practitioners, multilateral organizations and UN agencies, among others—align their efforts to deliver an effective response to COP28 and the GST.

Reception to follow event.

The post Beyond the GST Outcome: A Vision for Accelerating the Transition to Net Zero appeared first on Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.

Several different formulations for an overarching goal have been proposed formally and informally through the GlaSS programme and related discussions. In this brief, some of these proposals will be explored while highlighting their benefits, drawbacks, and considerations. The brief concludes by looking at how Parties can work toward the successful adoption of a GGA framework from now through COP28.

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